Predicting mortality and intubation risk in COPD flares

In this large retrospective cohort of 88,074 patients admitted with a COPD flare, researchers determined 3 variables (BUN>25, HR>109, and acute mental status change) predicted risk of mortality and intubation. In those with all 3 factors, mortality was 13%-15% (in the derivation and validation cohorts). In those with none of those factors and <age 65, mortality was 0.3% in both cohorts. The AUROC for mortality and intubation ranged from 0.71 to 0.77. This simple risk score can predict mortality and intubation risk in patients admitted with COPD flares (abstract).

Danielle Scheurer

Dr. Scheurer is a clinical hospitalist and the Medical Director of Quality and Safety at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston, South Carolina, and is Assistant Professor of Medicine. She is a graduate of the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, completed her residency at Duke University, and completed her Masters in Clinical Research at the Medical University of South Carolina. She also serves as the Web Editor and Physician Advisor for the Society of Hospital Medicine.

Leave a Comment