This large multi-center cohort derived and validated a model to predict the risk of an adverse drug reaction (ADR) among hospitalized patients > age 65. They found the strongest predictors were previous ADR and number of medications, followed by liver disease, renal disease, 4+ conditions, or heart failure. Those prescribed 5 or more drugs had about double the risk of an ADR, and those prescribed more than 8 drugs had about a 4 fold risk of an ADR. The overall AUC of the model was 0.70. Poly-pharmacy in hospitalized elderly patients substantially increases the risk of an ADR (abstract).
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