This large multi-center cohort derived and validated a model to predict the risk of an adverse drug reaction (ADR) among hospitalized patients > age 65. They found the strongest predictors were previous ADR and number of medications, followed by liver disease, renal disease, 4+ conditions, or heart failure. Those prescribed 5 or more drugs had about double the risk of an ADR, and those prescribed more than 8 drugs had about a 4 fold risk of an ADR. The overall AUC of the model was 0.70. Poly-pharmacy in hospitalized elderly patients substantially increases the risk of an ADR (abstract).
Dr. Scheurer is a clinical hospitalist and the Medical Director of Quality and Safety at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston, South Carolina, and is Assistant Professor of Medicine. She is a graduate of the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, completed her residency at Duke University, and completed her Masters in Clinical Research at the Medical University of South Carolina. She also serves as the Web Editor and Physician Advisor for the Society of Hospital Medicine.