Predicting short-term mortality in variceal bleeding

In this single center cohort of 267 patients with acute variceal bleeding, researchers derived and validated a simple risk model to determine the 6-week risk of death. They found 3 parameters (Child-Pugh score, bacterial infection, and creatinine level) predicted 6 week death more accurately than either the Child-Pugh score alone, or the MELD score. Those at the lowest and highest risk groups had mortality rates of 8% and 73% respectively. This easy to calculate risk score can be valuable in predicting short-term risk in variceal bleeding (abstract).

Danielle Scheurer

Dr. Scheurer is a clinical hospitalist and the Medical Director of Quality and Safety at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston, South Carolina, and is Assistant Professor of Medicine. She is a graduate of the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, completed her residency at Duke University, and completed her Masters in Clinical Research at the Medical University of South Carolina. She also serves as the Web Editor and Physician Advisor for the Society of Hospital Medicine.

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